Arsenal's European hopes lie in the FA Cup after a lackluster loss to Villa

The Aston Villa battle continues to avoid relegation on Tuesday as Arsenal welcomes Villa Park to its penultimate match of its seasons.

Arsenal's European hopes lie in the FA Cup after a lackluster loss to Villa

In Tuesday's Premier League match, Arsenal will face Aston Villa at 3:15 pm. ET (NBCSN).

Based on the odds of a direct bet for the Premier League, Arsenal is +110 favorite against Aston Villa.

Check out the detailed bet betting preview for Arsenal vs Aston Villa, including match predictions and the best betting options.

The Aston Villa battle continues to avoid relegation on Tuesday as Arsenal welcomes Villa Park to its penultimate match of its seasons.

With Watford losing 3-1 to West Ham over the weekend, Villa could even tie points with Watford with anger at Arsenal.

The Gunners became a very difficult team to read at this point in the season. On the one hand, they just beat Liverpool and Manchester City, but on the other hand they are safe in the middle of the table and are very far from being armed (intended for puns) in last place in the European League.

Chelsea's defeat in the FA Cup Final is their only real hope of qualifying for European football next season.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether the results are based on sustainable factors such as the continuous creation of registration opportunities, or whether this is due to aspects such as luck or pending goalkeeping.

Arsenal

Arsenal has improved steadily since restarting, gaining 13 points during the last eight Premier League matches. The Gunners qualify to beat Manchester City, where the underdogs are +750 in the FA Cup semifinals.

The really exciting point to take advantage of Arsenal's victory over City was their playing style. The gunners demonstrated that they could sit and defend City and succeed in the counterattack. Arsenal's defense is their Achilles heel, so if they can build this performance, they may head in the right direction.

However, Arsenal goal difference +4 was amplified over the past month compared to the expected goal difference -0.6. The main driving force behind this over-performance is the remarkable ingenuity of Pierre-Emireric Aubameyang as the team captain has been turning difficult opportunities into an impressive clip for the past few weeks.

Arsenal will need to create better opportunities to register this model to be sustainable.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa struggled to get points throughout the season.

While their goals were not bad for landing, their defense was corrupt.

Advanced metrics are not nice with Villa, which has given up 66 goals over 70 expected goals for the season.

Aston Villa format has been weak since restart, but may have been slightly unlucky. Villa's goal difference is -5 over those eight games, while the XG contrast is actually black at +0.12. This difference mainly comes at the offensive end, as Villa should have scored three more goals on these games according to xG models.

I think this might be a quiet place for Arsenal. They have just beat the last two Premier League champions in consecutive games and have nothing to gain from this competition. The only game of interest for Arsenal is the FA Cup final against Chelsea on August 1. Don't be surprised if the cannons are safe.

I think Vela has value in anything higher than +220 and suggests that you play half your bet on the money line and then half on +0.5 goals until -130.

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